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The Internet of Things: Reducing the Bullwhip Effect in Hospital Supply Chains

Journal of Operations Management · Onyi Dillibe, Ravi Aron, Praveen Pathak, Krabuanrat Tanasak

operationsoperations/supply-chainanalyticsanalytics/forecastingmethod

摘要

本研究探讨了如何利用物联网追踪耐用医疗设备运行时间,以估算MRO产品及消耗品需求,从而缓解医疗供应链中的牛鞭效应。通过分析一个跨12个季度的多级医疗供应链订单数据,并采用两阶段计量模型与反事实分析,研究发现共享使用与消耗信号能显著提升预测精度、降低订单规模并减少牛鞭效应。此外,供应链伙伴间的关系交换范围会放大设备追踪的效益,且边缘物联网网络下的信号共享效益更为显著。

ABSTRACT

We investigate how tracking the running times of durable medical equipment connected to the Internet of Things (IoT) can be used to estimate the demand for MRO products and consumable supplies (MRO & CS) and lessen the Bullwhip Effect in healthcare supply chains (HSCs). By analyzing a unique data set consisting of orders for medical supplies in a multi-echelon HSC spanning 12 quarters (3 years), using two-stage econometric modeling and counterfactual analysis methods, we find that the sharing of these usage and consumption signals significantly improves forecast accuracy, lowers order size, and reduces the bullwhip effects of MRO & CS. We find that the supply chain benefits of tracking equipment running time are amplified by the scope of the relational exchanges between supply chain partners. We analyze the two dominant IoT networking paradigms—Edge and cloud IoT—and find that the benefits of signal sharing are significantly higher under the Edge IoT network. We also find that the tracking of medical equipment has second-order effects that extend to products whose consumption is correlated with the tracked products. Our research makes important theoretical contributions to the HSC and technology management literatures and provides valuable insights into how emergent technologies can be used to address the distinctive challenges of healthcare supply chains.

The Internet of Things: Reducing the Bullwhip Effect in Hospital Supply Chains