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A new Twitter based credit rating model methodology

Annals of Operations Research

analyticsanalytics/forecastingdigitaldigital/aimethod

摘要

本文提出了一种基于Twitter数据预测企业信用评级的新方法。研究通过提取公司自身及相关的推文,将其转化为情感得分和语言特征作为预测因子,并比较了不同模型的预测性能。基于2011-2019年纳斯达克和纽交所上市公司的数据分析发现,纳入Twitter信息能显著提升信用评级预测的准确性。

In this paper we propose a novel way to predict corporate credit ratings by showing how a new type of data, Twitter, can be extracted and used for this purpose. We make three contributions to knowledge. First, we relate tweets from the companies themselves and tweets about the companies to the probability of a credit rating level. Second, we transform the tweets into two different sentiment scores which are used as predictors for credit rating levels and compare their predictive performance. The sentiment scores are calculated by using each of two alternative word-lists. Third, we propose two approaches how alternative information from Twitter, linguistic features in tweets, can be selected and incorporated into credit rating models. We compare the performance between the models containing the sentiment scores and the linguistic features. We analyze data relating to NASDAQ and NYSE listed companies over 2011-2019. Overall, we find that including information from Twitter gives a higher predictive performance compared to those of models that omit them.

A new Twitter based credit rating model methodology